Research on “Preventing Marginalisation in Air Passenger and Freight Business – Analysis of Global Aviation Network”

16 June 2017

Recognising the interlock between aviation and regional development, and the tremendous challenges Hong Kong aviation sector is facing, particularly from its Pearl River Delta (PRD) neighbours; a research team led by Dr Collin Wong has conducted an in-depth research based on global network analysis. Research findings were released at a press conference held on 16 Jun 2017.

Dr Wong, together with Dr Tommy Cheung and Dr Yue Wang, explained the evolution of the global aviation network in the past decade. Through the establishment of a Global Aviation Centrality Index (GACI), they examined and confirmed some latest aviation phenomena such as hub-bypassing, rapid passenger growth at secondary airports, and low-cost carriers’ (LCCs) bigger share of passenger traffic among all types of airport. The research also utilised Bayesian network analysis to identify relationships among factors affecting global air traffic volume. Interactions and relationships between passenger and cargo traffic were also investigated.

The speakers mentioned that the growth rate of Hong Kong International Airport (HKG) has been constantly below the average growth rate when compared with other PRD airports. Although HKG is still the prime airport in terms of annual passenger movement, its number of routes has already been surpassed by Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (CAN). If other PRD airports maintain their current growth trends, it is predicted that CAN will overtake Hong Kong’s regional lead in passenger movement in as few as several years.

In addition, the research team has developed a decision support system (DSS) to assist policy makers and stakeholders to make timely decisions relevant to aviation planning and development, and to strengthen Hong Kong’s aviation competitiveness in the long run. With the research findings and the assistance of DSS, the research team has made several recommendations to help HKG maintain its regional leadership in the aviation sector; such as revising existing routes and identifying new routes with greatest potential, strengthening its competitiveness as a transit hub, increasing airfreight volume, providing a variety of services to attract local customers, collaborating with other PRD airports, relaxing constraints and better utilising available air space.

The project was supported by the Public Policy Research Funding Scheme of the Central Policy Unit, and the Faculty Development Scheme of the University Grants Committee.

News clippings:
17 June 2017
- Guangzhou airport to edge out Hong Kong as dominant regional hub in ‘coming years’ (SCMP)

16 June 2017
- HSMC: HK Airport, PRC Airports Should Enhance Flight Cooperation (AAStocks Financial News)
- 學者指港機場與廣、深機場競爭嚴重 籲三地做好分工 (HK01)
- 港機場中轉優勢減 穗機場緊追 (Hong Kong Economic Journal)
- 載客量差距縮窄 港機場恐3年後被廣州超越 (on.cc)
- 粵港航線重疊競爭大 香港機場載客量恐3年後輸廣州 (Orange News)

17 June 2017
- 港機場客量勢遭廣州超越 (Hong Kong Economic Journal)
- 港機場地位恐遭廣州超越 (Oriental Daily News)

29 September 2017
- 化威脅為助力-香港與廣州航空業的錯位發展 (Master Insight)

Dr Collin Wong explained economic contribution by the aviation industry

Dr Yue Wang elaborated on the results derived from Bayesian network analysis

Dr Tommy Cheung explicated the performances of top Asian hub-airports

Industry leaders and scholars attended the press conference

(From left) Dr Tommy Cheung, Dr Collin Wong and Dr Yue Wang showed the full report